IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Tennessee Martin
Ohio Valley
2018-19

Overall
Predictive Rating	-6.6	#285
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.4	#270
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.1	#307

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.5	#228

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.1%	5.7%	1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.6	15.1

.500 or above	26.0%	59.1%	24.4%
.500 or above in Conference	38.7%	64.2%	37.5%
Conference Champion	2.5%	7.5%	2.3%
Last Place in Conference	13.5%	2.8%	14.0%

First Four	0.6%	0.7%	0.6%
First Round	1.7%	5.6%	1.5%
Second Round	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Away) - 4.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0.0 - 0.6	0.0 - 0.6
Quad 1b	0.1 - 1.4	0.1 - 1.9
Quad 2	0.5 - 3.2	0.6 - 5.1
Quad 3	1.7 - 4.9	2.3 - 10.0
Quad 4	8.4 - 6.3	10.7 - 16.3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2018	60	@ Western Kentucky	L	64-79	5%
Nov 16, 2018	272	@ Mercer	L	65-66	37%
Nov 21, 2018	270	Western Illinois	L	67-68	58%
Dec 01, 2018	294	UNC Asheville	W	68-67	63%
Dec 05, 2018	195	@ Tulane	L	67-72	24%
Dec 08, 2018	153	@ East Tennessee St.	L	62-69	19%
Dec 18, 2018	314	Chattanooga	W	66-63	68%
Dec 22, 2018	91	@ Fresno St.	L	60-72	10%
Dec 30, 2018	205	@ Bowling Green	L	68-72	27%
Jan 03, 2019	298	@ Eastern Illinois	W	65-64	44%
Jan 05, 2019	308	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	72-70	48%
Jan 10, 2019	151	Murray St.	L	63-70	34%
Jan 12, 2019	188	Austin Peay	L	68-73	42%
Jan 17, 2019	273	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	69-70	39%
Jan 19, 2019	224	@ Morehead St.	L	67-70	31%
Jan 24, 2019	298	Eastern Illinois	W	65-64	64%
Jan 26, 2019	320	SIU Edwardsville	W	71-68	69%
Jan 31, 2019	259	@ Tennessee St.	L	62-63	37%
Feb 02, 2019	109	@ Belmont	L	64-74	14%
Feb 07, 2019	146	Jacksonville St.	L	61-69	35%
Feb 09, 2019	287	Tennessee Tech	W	68-67	61%
Feb 14, 2019	308	Southeast Missouri St.	W	72-70	66%
Feb 16, 2019	320	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	71-68	50%
Feb 21, 2019	151	@ Murray St.	L	63-70	20%
Feb 23, 2019	188	@ Austin Peay	L	68-73	24%
Feb 28, 2019	109	Belmont	L	64-74	28%
Mar 02, 2019	259	Tennessee St.	L	62-63	57%
Projected Record						10.7 - 16.3	7.6 - 10.4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.5	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	1.0	1.7	0.7	0.4	0.0				3.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.3	1.7	2.5	1.3	0.4	0.0					6.2	3rd
4th									0.0	0.4	2.4	3.4	1.3	0.3	0.0						7.8	4th
5th								0.0	0.5	2.5	4.0	1.8	0.3	0.0							9.0	5th
6th							0.0	0.5	3.3	4.5	1.9	0.2	0.0								10.3	6th
7th						0.0	0.4	3.3	4.7	2.5	0.2	0.0									11.2	7th
8th					0.0	0.3	2.7	5.0	2.3	0.3	0.0										10.7	8th
9th				0.0	0.3	2.3	4.3	2.9	0.3	0.0											10.1	9th
10th			0.1	0.4	2.2	4.1	2.7	0.5	0.0												9.8	10th
11th		0.1	0.5	2.4	3.9	2.3	0.5	0.0													9.8	11th
12th	0.5	1.2	2.8	2.3	1.3	0.3	0.0														8.5	12th

Total	0.5	1.3	3.4	5.2	7.7	9.3	10.6	12.1	11.1	10.3	8.8	7.2	5.2	3.5	1.9	1.1	0.5	0.1	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-2	96.2%	0.4		0.3	0.1	0.0
15-3	63.1%	0.7		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-4	38.4%	0.7		0.2	0.4	0.1	0.0
13-5	9.9%	0.4		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	2.7%	0.1		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	2.5%	2.5		1.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		66.7%	66.7%		12.1											0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0
17-1	0.1%		32.6%	32.2%	0.3%	12.7												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1		0.5%
16-2	0.5%		37.3%	37.3%		14.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.3
15-3	1.1%		20.5%	20.5%		14.2													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.9
14-4	1.9%		10.8%	10.8%		14.6													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	1.7
13-5	3.5%		11.3%	11.3%		15.1														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	3.1
12-6	5.2%		7.1%	7.1%		15.3															0.1	0.1	0.2	4.8
11-7	7.2%		3.1%	3.1%		15.7															0.0	0.0	0.2	7.0
10-8	8.8%		2.3%	2.3%		15.9															0.0	0.0	0.2	8.6
9-9	10.3%		0.9%	0.9%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.2
8-10	11.1%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.1	11.0
7-11	12.1%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	12.1
6-12	10.6%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	10.6
5-13	9.3%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.3
4-14	7.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	7.7
3-15	5.2%																							5.2
2-16	3.4%																							3.4
1-17	1.3%																							1.3
0-18	0.5%																							0.5

Total	100%		2.1%	2.1%	0.0%	15.0											0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.9	97.9		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%